Scenario Planning: Base vs. Conservative vs. Aggressive
Build three financial scenarios that prepare your business for any future. Learn how to model base, conservative, and aggressive cases that investors trust and management can execute against.
Scenario planning is how sophisticated businesses prepare for uncertainty. Instead of betting on a single forecast, you build three versions of your future: a Base case that reflects your best judgment, a Conservative case that stress-tests your assumptions, and an Aggressive case that captures upside potential.
The Three Scenarios
Base Case
Your most likely outcome. Built on reasonable assumptions backed by market research, historical data, and realistic growth rates. This is your primary planning scenario.
Conservative Case
Stress-tests your plan against headwinds. Slower growth, lower conversion rates, higher churn, delayed hiring. Shows investors you have a viable plan even when things go wrong.
Aggressive Case
Your upside potential if everything clicks. Faster adoption, viral growth, better margins. Demonstrates market opportunity size and helps plan for scaling when you exceed targets.
Key Levers to Adjust
For each scenario, adjust these core drivers:
- Revenue Growth Rate: Base 15-20%, Conservative 5-10%, Aggressive 30-50%+
- Customer Churn: Base 5%, Conservative 10%, Aggressive 2% monthly
- CAC: Base $500, Conservative $750, Aggressive $350 per customer
- Hiring Timeline: Conservative delays hires by 3-6 months to preserve cash
Investor Expectation
Sophisticated investors expect to see all three scenarios. The Conservative case proves you have a viable business even in tough conditions. The Aggressive case shows you understand the full market opportunity.
Build Your Scenarios
PlanAI lets you create and save multiple scenarios per module. Toggle between Base, Conservative, and Aggressive cases and mix-and-match for different audiences.
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